As I was adding accounts and rates for my certificate of deposit site, I began to notice that 3 and 6 month CDs were offering higher rates than 5 year CDs - which seems to be the opposite of what you’d expect. I decided to whip up a quick graph last night, and sure enough, the yield curve (at least from my sample data) is inverted. 6 month yields are at around 5.32% APY, whereas 5 year yields are at just over 5%. Inverted yield curves are typically a sign that the market thinks the economy will be very slow in the future, or perhaps even decline.
The other interesting thing to note is that savings account rates at a lot of banks beat most CD rates. Several savings accounts are paying over 5.00% APY. This data doesn’t make it look very attractive to put your money into a CD, when savings account rates are just as high (or higher, in some cases) and don’t lock your money up.
One Response
ChrisCD
August 2nd, 2007 at 12:05 pm
1These days the FOMC is in a pickle. The housing sector is still struggling along and could really use a rate cut. But cost of goods is rising (although not yet spilling over into their inflation calculations).
Lowering rate could further enlarge the current equity bubble, though.
We will probably be in this current rate environment for quite some time.
Here is a link to some Historical CD rates that we have published.
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